DWP - Futurist At Large

A Direction for Near Future Tech

With current technology there is a trend towards the combining of functions and technologies. Perhaps it is not a "Swiss Army Knife" of technology we are looking at, but when you look at all that is being included in some items like your typically carried Cell phones -- there is a lot there.

I believe that all Cell phones include a phone book in them to record the numbers of calls coming in or going out. This is of course more convenient when tied in with the service of call display which many if not most subscribe to or have included in their service. Most if not all the phones also have some sort of calendar function in addition to a watch function and at least rudimentary alarm function if not one that can be programmed in conjunction with the calendar. Combining these they often have a virtual appointment book ability which would have been the envy of any business executive 20 years ago.

Nearly everyone could if they wish, have access to voice mail as well for missed calls or be able to forward calls to or from a regular phone service to their mobile one. They also have options to send or receive text messages. The price for them of course varies depending on service contract and location. (Not to mention date, phase of the moon, tide, which direction the last dark bird flew past your gaze...)

Those are pretty well standard sorts of communication things you might expect.

A bit more than that are Internet capabilities including being able to access eMail, Internet Chat services, and actual World Wide Web access. You might pay a bit heftier dollar for that ability and even more if you would like to be able to plug your portable computer into your cell phone whether it is a Notebook or Net book computer.

Beyond that... many of not most cell phones have the ability to take digital photographs if not short digital videos. It seems to me that the 1 Megapixel resolution level is very common if not greater. That is a log greater than most people might need for use in digital images for the Internet. Of course we are not talking about the needs of photographers here.

The phones -- and we aren't talking about the expensive sort really -- very often include the ability to download and play games in addition to other things like "ring tones" and background art for the control screen that nearly all phones have. That is the same screen you screen your digital pictures and videos on as well as check your messages and everything on.

The phone as well can often be used to play music on and can do well as an mp3 player with only the addition of decent headphones or earbuds.

All those things on fairly normal cell phones.

Then we get to the "smart phones" which are virtually tiny computers with complete keyboards or alternate methods for data entry. Some have nearly gone away from keys completely opting for total touch screen control -- that allows for the entire top surface of the device to be used as the device screen. Those can act as total digital assistants... or PDA -- Pocket Digital Assistants -- like the Palm Pilots of all. They seem to have superceded the Palm Pilots if you ever try go shopping for them.

The mp3 player has expanded as well to include the abilities to record sound like a portable voice recorder. The mp players also routinely include FM radio recievers and have enough memory to allow them to carry digital computer files within -- thus acting as "pen drives" or "memory sticks". Of course the mp3 players themself can use memory cards which gets sorta circular. The mp3 player also expanded into playing video and being an mp4 player. This is where they overlapped or became or inspired or...(?) the portable video player. The really nice ones also forgo the buttons for touch screens... and are nearly identical to the cell phones with the same screens. They just don't have the cell phone function. Though the mp3/video player ones did gain the wireless networking capability tha allows them to comunicate wirelessly and hence the good ones can access the Internet and do everything else those cell phone ones can do. They even play the same games in the same ways... and I believe from the same sources. Did I mention the phones can download and play the same videos the video players can?

Then there are the portable game players -- they have gotten more and more powerful and gained the ability to network wirelessly as well, and you can access the Internet as well as computers with them. Many of them have touch screens and they can be used to play videos or watch pictures on -- much like the mp3/video playes I have mentioned and the cell phones.

There are also eBook players out there whose purpose is to hold and display eBooks in various formats. They connect either through networking cables or more commonly now through wireless networking.

I might finally mention the digital picture frames which are very limited and the PDAs that I think morphed into the "smart phones" and mostly disappeared.

Perhaps the edges between these things are very much blurring -- especially if you take into account the notebook/laptop computers and their slightly smaller cousin the net book. I do see a direction that things might take with this blurry tech fog.

I think that people will start thinking of what their primary focus is and then go for the device that handles that best. Then they will purchase a device that does that best -- meaning with all the features of that dedicated device -- and have that device fitted with all the other features that would be convenient not to have to carry as separate devices.

Here is an example of what I am speaking:

Let's say I have a hobby that is photography. I would go to a camera shop and purchase a nice camera. It would have the lenses or a lens system that I would want. (I am not a photographer, so please bear with me as I am not so conversant with the terms and stuff.) Having chosen the camera I would also have a camera that would have digital memory for digitally recording the images as well as recording them on film. (Providing it took film photographs as well as digital ones.) It would be able to record sound and some video as well. The camera would be able to play mp3 files as a music player through headphones or ear buds although they might be bluetooth wireless ones. I would also be able to watch video content on the display screen of the camera if I should so choose. The camera would also have wireless networking to connect with WiFi hotspots or my computer and if I should choose I should be able to activate it to a cell phone plan and use it as a cell phone with a handy blue tooth headset. Not to mention using the camera for "texting" messages or as an address or date book.

Conversely if my prime usage were as a student, perhaps all of these functions might take place through a portable computer -- probably a net book for portability -- that I would use for all those functions.

I guess the idea sort of falls apart if you don't want to carry the large item everywhere, like when you don't want to carry the net book to everything, or the camera, or the digital tape recorder, or the electric guitar (with the phone etc. built in...)... But for the photographer, videographer, reporter, author, or other person who always carries their tools around with them...

Hmm, I guess they aren't building them into paint brushes or pens quite yet... but how about those scientific or engineering calculators... they still make calculators don't they?

Later!
~ Darrell

158.

Too Real

When is it too much toy?

"Talk To Me Elmo" is an interesting toy. Now I have not seen one in action in person, but I have heard one in action over the phone being played with by my friend's 2-year-old and have seen the slightly more venerable "Tickle Me Elmo" which started that toy ball rolling. It was very interesting listening to "Elmo" chattering away with my "niece" while my friend was on the phone. My friend described how Elmo was flapping his arms and how my niece was flapping hers and later how she had set Elmo up at her drawing table expecting Elmo to do some drawing.

(image to left of "Talk To Me Elmo" from USA TODAY.com)

Now I don't think that "Talk To Me Elmo" is quite up to doing any drawing... yet ... but it did get me wondering about what people have said in the past about the effect of television on children. I was wondering about the effect of such life-like toys on children. There was always this controversy about how children might not understand the difference between reality and fiction, or reality and fantasy with the television offerings they had. That was combined with the large number of hours of TV viewing that children were starting to have.

Toys like the new Elmo might be bending that line further. Perhaps not too much problem with the current generation of Elmo toys, but what about the near future?

This Elmo can interact with the child at least by touch and "...remembers a child's name and habits..."¹ according the the 2005 article on USA TODAY.com. The current one I know does much and probably more than the 2005 edition.

I am not sure if we should be worried or at least be concerned over the direction toys might be taking in blurring the boundaries between toy and reality... or is it toy? These toys are small robots and computers and the children are becoming very comfortable with them.

Of course perhaps we have to watch about not the boundary between reality and illusion, fiction, or fantasy -- but rather the boundary between life and automation.

Later!
~ Darrell

153.

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¹ "New tech toys walk, talk and play tunes this Christmas" Sept 6 2005; Angela Moore; Reuters USATODAY.com -- Tech Products..

Robot in the House

Whir - Can I Help You?

What sort of robot would you like to meet you at home? I am not speaking of the boring domestic idea of a robot that is the dishwasher or toaster or microwave, nor the multi disc CD or DVD changer in your entertainment unit. (Is my age showing? They still have CD players right?) I am meaning a walk around the house, pick the laundry off the floor, answer the door, walk the cat, water the dog, vacuum the dishes and wash the roses - robot!

Do you see R2D2 or C3P0? Do you see the positronic robot from "I Robot" or Honda's ASIMO? (picture on the right from a press release about ASIMO.) I have seen a bit in the past written about the psychology of android and robot design. I guess it might have come out some time before Star Wars came out - that was "Star Wars" when there was just the one film. There was an article pondering just what form robot helpers might take - perhaps it was in an Isaac Asimov nonfiction book?

I really can't remember where the article or book's musings ended and mine started - it did get me thinking on the subject though. The article was talking about how if an android looked and acted too much like a person it would cause fear in people because they could not tell it from people, yet it might be fundamentally different. The human appearing android might harbour a danger - perhaps in the form of an emotionless killer or a perfect lier without any "tell". We might fall in love with such a construct and perhaps be very hurt or perhaps betray confidences without knowing.

On the other hand an android which was too different, like one of obvious gears and cogs might evoke fear because it was too alien - too hard to relate to or feel confidence in.

Whether very human looking or not human at all, a question might be, would you trust it to look after your children? Would you trust it to drive your car? Would you trust it to buy your groceries or pick up that prescription at the pharmacy? Would you trust it with the plans to the Deathstar?

After thinking on it I considered what I saw in the world around me. People feared the robots of "West World" and others which looked identical to humans. They used mechanical looking robots as monsters all the time. "Mechagodzilla" was intended to be scarier looking than "Godzilla" was because it was obviously mechanical. Even half-way friendly robots like Roby from "Forbidden Planet" or the protective robot of the original 60's series "Lost in Space" still had a fear factor. Robots that were obviously "mechanical men" evoked fear and robots that were not really man-shaped also did even when they acted friendly.

Personally I found marionettes and ventriloquists dummies scary. that might be a hold-over from seasons of the original "Twilight Zone" and "Outer Limits". Those not so "mechanical men" would not give me much confidence. I also hated getting pinched by a mechanical tin toy I had a child. But there was something from my environment that did give me an idea. While marionettes and ventriloquist dummies gave me the willies, hand puppets and stuffed animals didn't. Granted they hadn't come up with knife welding killer teddy bears yet. But they had just come up with "Muppets"!

Muppets look different enough not to be confused with real people or animals and yet they do not have the scary bits of a mechanical man. I think it is something in a way like how a skeleton is scary. Those bony mechanical bits are supposed to be kept on the inside. I think that at least from a psychological and trust perspective it might be easier to trust a muppet-like robot in the home. I think that the robots and androids that became popular had some features of them. Even C3PO who was quite obviously a mechanical man had a muppet-like quality, I think. I think the comedy relief aspects helped out with their acceptance as well as the voice and sound characterizations and kinetic acting skills of the actor inside C3PO.

In some ways I think C3P0 might be an exception that proves the rule...

Other aspects of acceptable robots are that they tend to be a bit out of scale and they tend not to have edges to bite. There was Tweeky from the Buck Rogers televisions series for instance. I know I am giving ancient 30+ year old examples, but I am giving the examples from the time when I was thinking of this stuff. You might include all the larger and smaller than normal furred characters in the acceptable sorts.

Anyway I figured that acceptable robots would be somewhat like muppets. The would be larger or smaller than us and wouldn't have sharp corners or external rods or levers - their skeletons would be covered. They would not make quick moves - at least not unnecessarily. I think that ASIMO fits into that really. ASIMO might not be covered with fur but it is very smooth looking and moving.

I guess there might be a problem with allergies for muppet nursemaids, maids, and buttlers and purple fur covered gardners would be just always needing cleaning and having burs picked out of their fur.

Still, I wonder if you can get ASIMO fitted in a nice blue hypoallergenic padded fur suit?.

Later!
~ Darrell

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